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Industry polarization in the first quarter is expected to reach 57.9 for the full year

Issuing time:2020-05-09 16:43

A sudden outbreak, not only china's industrial chain, supply chain has a profound impact, but also to the textile and garment industry has a huge impact. In the face of foreign trade obstruction, weak domestic demand, sales decline and a series of challenges, the industry, enterprises in the face of great pressure at the same time, also began a different way of self-help and break-out, the opportunity to seek danger.

  How to deal with the change of a hundred years, in the fog to find a way out, re-energizing vitality? At this moment, accurate knowledge change, scientific strain, active change, knowledge of the trend, firm confidence, good at capturing and creating opportunities from the immediate crisis, immediate difficulties, is the outbreak of China's textile industry innovation and start again the way back attack.

  Overcoming the epidemic, and then on the journey, confidence can not be reduced, textile power goals can not be changed.

  In order to better help enterprises through change to see the essence, follow the trend to find direction, "China Textile" magazine launched a series of "seize the opportunity to determine confidence" series of special reports, focusing on foreign trade and domestic demand two markets, from the industry, enterprises from different dimensions, the pulse of the current textile industry development status quo, good medicine, early planning, build high-quality development.

  The outbreak of the new corona pneumonia outbreak, let us feel the importance of industrial textiles, indispensable. After the outbreak, China's industrial textile industry to overcome many difficulties, and strive to ensure the normal supply of raw materials. In many people believe that the current only industry not affected by the outbreak is the industrial textile industry. So, does this outbreak have any impact on the industry? If so, how big is the impact? What are the main effects of these effects?

  The first quarter of the industry running smoothly

  The outbreak has polarised

  In order to keep abreast of the operation of the industrial textile industry in the first quarter, especially the order, production and sales of enterprises under the new crown outbreak, and the enterprise's development expectations for the whole year, the China Industrial Textile industry association conducted a questionnaire survey in the industry at the end of March. It is understood that the survey, a total of 240 enterprises submitted a questionnaire, of which 233 valid questionnaires. Effective sample enterprises from the health care, safety protection, non-woven coils, filtration and separation, wire belt, military-civilian integration, special fiber and equipment, rope network and other fields, involving the entire industrial chain of industrial textiles. Analysis of the sample enterprises, 2019 main business income (enterprise size) mainly concentrated in 1 to 500 million yuan, accounting for nearly 40% of the total, nearly 10% of enterprises more than 1 billion yuan, 12.45% of enterprises are enterprises below the size.

  Sample enterprise domain distribution

  For the first quarter of the business situation, 11.16% of enterprises said very good, 30.47% of enterprises said better, 38.63% of enterprises said general. Nearly 20 percent said they were doing badly, and nearly 4 percent said they were doing very badly. The business situation will be indexed treatment, the first quarter of the industry's business climate index 63.7, health care, safety protection, filtration and separation, non-woven coils, equipment and accessories in the field of high business climate, which engaged in the production of anti-epidemic materials in the field of health business climate index reached 79.2, and geotechnical construction, rope mesh, lining cloth and other fields of the business climate index in the dry value (50).

  Sample Business Climate Index Chart for the First Quarter

  Through analysis, it can be found that the impact of the epidemic on the industrial textile industry tends to be bipolar. On the one hand, the production of anti-epidemic materials business conditions, demand growth, orders full, on the other hand, engaged in other areas of production enterprises have also been affected to varying degrees of negative impact.

  Enterprises generally expect that after the second quarter with the resumption of production and major projects, as well as the state to support economic development policy measures, the industry in infrastructure construction, environmental protection, safety protection demand will be restored, the global demand for medical protection products will continue to grow, enterprises for the full year business situation remains a certain optimistic.

  On the demand side. 31.33 percent of sample companies said the outbreak spurred growth in demand, while 21.03 percent said the outbreak reduced demand, 4.12 percent said the outbreak delayed the company's demand and orders, but expected to recover during the year, and 6.44 percent said the outbreak had no impact on the company's demand.

  Overseas orders. 34.43 per cent said overseas orders were stable, but 32.79 per cent said some orders were cancelled and 8.2 per cent said orders were canceled, while 9.84 per cent said orders had increased. The questionnaire shows that the industry as a whole is not dependent on overseas markets.

  Transfer of materials to fight the outbreak. 20.6% of sample enterprises were engaged in masks, protective clothing and their raw materials before the outbreak, 31.76 percent of enterprises said to start producing the above-mentioned materials after the outbreak, and 47.64 percent of enterprises said they did not produce materials related to the fight against the outbreak.

  Fixed asset investment. 66.09% of the sample companies indicated that they had a new project investment plan in 2020. Affected by the outbreak, among the enterprises with investment plans, 67.53 percent of the enterprises will implement the investment projects as planned, 29.87 percent of enterprises said they will postpone the implementation, depending on the impact of the outbreak to make a decision, only one enterprise said that the investment plan has been cancelled.

  Non-protective goods industry cluster has a great impact

  Small and medium-sized enterprises are

  The outbreak has had a greater impact on small and medium-sized private enterprises represented by catering, tourism, manufacturing, etc., and some types of non-protective products cluster enterprises are facing severe challenges to varying degrees.

  Engineering enterprises

  Due to the impact of the epidemic, due to the project enterprises by the local government's request to delay the resumption of work directly led to the project delayed start, will directly affect the project's overall duration can not be expected to achieve; Such as the equipment of Jiangsu Branch Tong, Shandong Lingcheng geotechnical projects. There are more equipment manufacturers in The Branch Tong of Jiangsu Province, because their products are not related to the outbreak, so it is affected by the market and stop production. There are many geotechnical enterprises in Lingcheng, Shandong Province, but most of them are engineering enterprises, and the implementation of the turnkey project.

  Operating enterprises in the service production category

  Service enterprises tend to light assets of small and medium-sized enterprises, the professional characteristics of the industry outstanding, the current labor costs, logistics costs doubled, in the face of the current epidemic overall risk resistance is not strong, by the enterprises served by the impact of production stoppage. Such as Hebei Anping, the cluster of transport enterprises, monitoring platform enterprises, exhibitions, etc. due to the impact of the outbreak delayor or can not start the main enterprise performance is insufficient.

  Equipment production enterprises in the general class

  Equipment production-oriented enterprises are labor-intensive equipment production enterprises, in order to prevent the spread of the epidemic, most general-purpose equipment production enterprises are suspended from work. Not starting is sitting on the mountain, all kinds of expenses including rent, equipment depreciation, loan interest, staff wages and other pressure. These manufacturers are facing the risk of shortage of funds, such as mechanical and electrical enterprises, foundry enterprises and steel processing enterprises in Chitang, Jiangsu Province, will be affected by non-main industries.

  Watch out for overcapacity after the epidemic

  Structural adjustment is imperative

  In 2019, China's maximum daily production of masks is more than 20 million, production of about 5 billion, output value of up to 10,235 million yuan, the fastest mask production speed of 1000 per minute, as of February 28, 2020 masks, especially in the polar or non-resident furnace mask medical shortage. For domestic mask production enterprises, in the short term through the procurement of production lines, expansion of production workers and other ways to expand the mask production capacity. This outbreak will make many people improve the awareness of respiratory diseases prevention and control, in the short term there is still a large gap in the market, appropriate adjustment of industrial structure to help meet market demand. However, because the mask is not the necessity of life, after the outbreak of the market demand for masks will stabilize, small enterprises weak ability to resist risks, suddenly adjust the industrial structure or cause inventory backlog, consumption of cash flow and other phenomena. Medical protective clothing and isolation clothing also face this problem.

  The outbreak has had a greater impact on the industry, with a positive impact on the whole outweighing the negative impact.

  In the short term, the negative impact of the epidemic on the industry is the most fundamental financial problems, staff shortages, especially small and medium-sized, micro-enterprise cash flow difficulties continue to increase. Cluster enterprises can solve the problem of short-term capital turnover through accounts receivable factoring, capital lending, and appropriate increase in exports, and survive during the epidemic is a victory.

  From the medium-term development point of view, the epidemic has prompted the industry in the water environment, atmospheric environment, emergency monitoring, emergency treatment, medical sewage treatment, medical waste treatment and disposal, sanitation services and other fields of standardization, standardization construction, and even in the national reserve system construction, the future of these sub-sectors in the depth, breadth will be on the bid, upgrade is imperative. Therefore, cluster industry enterprises should see the crisis of the epidemic into an opportunity for industry upgrading and development.

  From a long-term strategic point of view, at this stage, more than 90% of the country is small and medium-sized micro-enterprises, due to the impact of the competitive environment, enterprise development is difficult to get the support of continuous innovation technology, some processing industry technology content is not high, but also restrict the value of the industry's investment. After this outbreak is bound to speed up the process of industry mergers and acquisitions, followed by the establishment of national emergency reserves, increase the intensity of acquisitions, take into account the collection and storage and production capacity release, the third is to improve the industrial chain support, the formation of self-improvement of a larger-scale industrial cluster, which is the cluster government and enterprises need to consider the issue in advance.

  Market, capital is difficult

  Companies are optimistic about the future

  For the main difficulties faced by enterprises, 52.36 percent of enterprises think that overseas market expansion difficulties, 46.78 percent of enterprises think that market demand is declining, nearly 30% of enterprises think that cash flow is tight, other difficulties also include limited transportation logistics, labor shortage and raw materials procurement difficulties, but market demand and capital is the biggest challenge facing enterprises.

  However, for the industry's expected full-year development, 30% of enterprises said that domestic demand will increase by more than 10% for the full year, 17.6% of enterprises think it will increase by 3% to 10%, 22.32% of enterprises said demand will be basically flat, but 31% of enterprises said demand will decline to varying degrees. After indexing the domestic demand situation of enterprises, the annual domestic demand index of enterprises was 57.9, higher than the domestic demand index in the first quarter. The demand index for overseas markets was 43.6, higher than the first-quarter overseas demand index, but still in a contractionary range, indicating that the outbreak is spreading around the world and companies are more pessimistic about the recovery of the global economy.

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