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Production capacity of about 7% of the country's Hangzhou Dikai plant fire, dye prices may usher in

Issuing time:2020-05-09 16:46

Last year, the chain reaction of Jiangsu's sound water explosion caused a market shock, including dyes, the price of a variety of chemical products soared, nearly a thousand enterprises stopped limiting production. Nine months later, there was another fire in the chemical enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang. Recently, a fire broke out at the plant of Hangzhou Dikai Co., Ltd., located in the six-part section of Qiantang New Area in Zhejiang Province.

  According to the "China Textile News" reporter understand that the accident occurred in the company's annual production of dispersed dyes up to more than 40,000 tons, is one of the major manufacturers of dye industry in China. What impact will this accident have on the textile market? Will it trigger a new round of consolidation and shutdown? What will happen to dye prices in early 2020?

  Will a new round of shutdowns be triggered?

  Public information shows that Hangzhou Dikai Chemical Co., Ltd. is a Sino-US joint venture, located in Zhejiang Xiaoshan Qiantang River. Founded in 1994, the registered capital of 24.82 million yuan, the scope of business is the production of organic chemical dyes and intermediates. The company now has assets of more than 100 million yuan, plant area of 7 hectares, has more than 550 employees, its dye production capacity accounted for about 7% of the total production capacity of the country's dye industry. According to the 2017 annual report, the company's sales during the period exceeded 160 million yuan, net profit of nearly 24 million yuan, total assets of 130 million yuan. Compared to 2016, the company's total sales in 2017 decreased slightly by 10 million yuan, but net profit increased by more than 13 million yuan, an increase of more than 100%. The company's annual report did not release specific financial information for the past two years.

  Official sources said the accident was caused by a fire in the company's semi-finished dispersant warehouse, fortunately the factory did not have a large number of staff, causing only four workers of the enterprise suffered minor injuries.

  "Chemical enterprise safety first. In the event of an explosion and a high impact, it may result in the closure of enterprises in the industrial clusters in the area for safety inspections. The accident is expected to have some impact on the dye industry, but there will be no centralized shutdown, it is difficult to affect the operation of other dye factories. Guotai Junan futures analyst Ye Lewei said.

  One German futures analyst Yu Binbin also believes that the impact of this accident alone is not large. Yu Binbin said that recently, Qiantang New Area Emergency Management Bureau, Public Security Bureau, fire brigade has jointly carried out accident investigation, and to do one by one, to carry out hidden trouble investigation of the relevant enterprises within the new area. However, from the strict degree of environmental protection production restrictionpolicy in recent years, the 2020 high probability will be a new round of inspection limit production stoppage.

  "The incident caused serious casualties, there are really a large number of local security risks, chemical market integration is imperative. The accident is the same as the corporate nature of the company that sounded the water incident, producing similar products. But the Hangzhou incident did not have any casualties, and near the Spring Festival, some enterprises have been on holiday, take a short period of production stoppage check effect is not good. "It's a big money futures analyst, Yu Yusen.

  What will happen to the dye price?

  There is no doubt that in recent years, the key words of the dye and dyeing industry are safety, environmental protection and price. From the current situation, there is a large area of production cut-off is not likely, but the subsequent increase in dye prices still affect the concerns of the industry.

  Data show that in the first quarter of 2019, the average transaction price of 300% of scattered black ECT was around 35 yuan/kg. At that time, market participants on the dye and intermediate price trend is not optimistic, but with the occurrence of Jiangsu sound water explosion accident, the price of scattered dye all the way up. In April 2019, the spread black ECT 300% transaction price of more than 50 yuan / kg, some orders price reached 55 yuan / kg, or even rose to 60 yuan / kg, a new high in recent years.

  After this accident, in 2020 dye prices will show what trend?

  Yu said that the Jiangsu and Zhejiang region is an important printing and dyeing textile base in China, the accident is bound to cause a greater follow-up impact on China's printing and dyeing industry, its downstream raw material prices will go up, and its upstream products will face a more severe test. Now, the industry itself is in the off-season, the short-term impact may not be obvious, but after the Spring Festival, the impact will gradually appear. "After a downturn in late 2018 and the whole of 2019, prices in the dye industry have basically bottomed out and there is limited room for further sharp declines," he said. At present, most products are on the verge of loss or into a loss. Some companies have pulled out after this round of loss-making shuffles. Entering the first quarter of 2020, the market will improve, but there is still limited room for dye price increases. "

  "Dispersed dye prices are inevitable in the first quarter of 2020, but the impact of safety incidents and environmental pressures is relatively small. The price of dye is mainly determined by the supply and demand relationship. "The Minister of Colorful Cloud Information, Yu Fang, pointed out that at present, Zhejiang Longsheng, leap soil and other major decentralized dye manufacturers, inventory level is low. As the price of decentralized dyes fell to historic lows in the fourth quarter of 2019, many traders and printing and dyeing companies increased their reserves, resulting in a shortage of inventory of decentralized dye manufacturers. "As a manufacturing enterprise, in the production and marketing balance or even the goods in short supply, enterprises will generally use price means to adjust demand, balance the production and marketing relationship. "

  The current cost of distributed dyes is higher than in early 2019, he said. "The price of dispersed dye intermediates is high compared to the beginning of 2019. For example, the price of amphetamine at the beginning of last year was 45,000 yuan / ton, the current price is 70,000 yuan / ton, the reduction price at the beginning of last year was 40,000 yuan / ton, the current price is 45,000 yuan / ton, the price of other dispersed dye intermediates is also higher than the price in early 2019. Enterprises in safety, environmental protection and other aspects of investment in the energy, labor and other aspects of the cost of increasing. "

  In addition, Yu Fang also pointed out that many large-scale decentralized dye enterprises are listed companies, medium-sized decentralized dye enterprises are also mostly declared listed, listed companies and quasi-listed companies on the profit demand is greater. She estimated: "According to the current decentralized dye prices, in 2020 dye enterprises will be a significant decline in profits, listed companies and quasi-listed companies will face greater pressure to decline in performance." Due to the high concentration of the decentralized dye industry, the combined market share of Longsheng and Leap Earth is about 60%. High concentration of industries, especially large leading enterprises, has a large market pricing power, when faced with downward pressure on performance, through price increases to increase profits is also a common decision-making behavior. It is recommended that the printing and dyeing enterprises should be properly stocked before the Spring Festival. "

  However, Yu Fang also said that after the Spring Festival, once the sub-northern decentralized dye production enterprises all start production, will contribute 100,000 tons / year of production capacity. At that time, the price of the dispersed dye is likely to hit the top and fall.

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